Session: 3.2 - Plant Construction, Supply Chain Mgmt. & Economics & 4.4 - Integrated Energy Systems & Micro-grids

Paper Number: 108763

108763 - Energy Mix Forecasting: A Techno-Economic Analysis to Guide U.S. Power Production Decisions Through 2100 

With advancing technology, growing population, and increased accessibility, there is an ever-growing need for energy to power our world. Meeting this increased demand is challenged by stringent environmental constraints, the time required to implement new energy sources, and the cost of production. Many recent studies deliver predictions for the energy mix needed for delivering power through 2050. These forecasts are constructed for a range of technology employments and policy scenarios to reach certain goals, but in isolation. As power production systems improve and policies change, these static estimates may no longer hold true for what is possible in the next twenty-five years, and the capability to rapidly update these estimates based on their relevant constraints and on a longer-term basis, will be needed.

An energy mix defines the collection of energy sources used to generate electricity in a given region. In the United States this mix is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels. Transitioning the energy mix from traditional fossil fuels toward modern, less carbon intense, power sources will take time, but as technology improves and policy dictates, doing so will be inevitable. This transition can only occur as existing power plants retire, and new systems are brought online. In this transition is an opportunity to alter the energy mix profile to lower environmental impact through reduced emissions, but to do so at a lower economic cost will require strategic decision making.

This paper will detail the development of a framework for forecasting future energy mix scenarios. This framework may be used to advise policy makers, investors, and other decision makers toward energy sources which will be quantitatively critical in their preferred energy future, based on cost, environmental, or other priorities. Further, forecasts are made to 2100, to articulate the impacts of decisions made today well into the relevant future.

The developed framework is a heavily quantified process which annually assesses how to meet demand, meet emissions agreements, and track costs along the way. First, the annual energy demand is determined from a projected increase in customer demand alongside the assumed retirement of existing power plants. Next, combinations of energy sources to meet this new demand are evaluated against one another using a cost function. A mix of annual additions are selected based on the collection’s ability to minimize cost of introduction while observing a constraint on allowable emissions and total delivered power. Finally, the energy mix is updated to reflect the previous analysis year’s selection. The construction time for the prospective power plants is tracked to project actual infrastructure planning alongside online plant energy mix. This energy mix update determination is repeated annually from 2020 to 2100 to deliver a single energy future alternative. Throughout the analysis, emissions constraints may change, limits are placed on the annual addition of specific power sources, and the prioritization of cost versus emissions may be modified. The introduced framework allows for transparency in the evaluations performed and the conditions informing these across the considered power systems.

The developed framework will be exemplified in two exercises in this paper. The first exercise investigates the impact of the timeliness of decision making as toward future energy infrastructure. Delaying the transition from the current energy mix toward a less carbon intense energy mix drives up total costs and emissions out to 2100 and diminishes the range of potential futures. The second exercise investigates the sensitivity of the bounds placed on the introduction rate of the considered energy sources. The bounds represent a constraint on the maximum amount of a respective energy source can be, or a minimum amount that must be, added to the mix annually to meet the new demand.  Results highlight the importance of these bounds, and point to a need for a more specific use case for deploying the developed framework. These assessments will be explained, alongside the actual models deployed, and the construction of the framework itself in the full paper.

Presenting Author: Joshua Brooks Georgia Institute of Technology

Presenting Author Biography: Dr. Joshua Brooks is a Research Engineer II within the School of Aerospace Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology, where he works within the ASDL’s Propulsion and Energy Division. In his current position, Dr. Brooks leads and manages experimental and analytical research teams in the fields of propulsion and aircraft systems design, renewable and sustainable energy, and seawater desalination and water management. Joshua holds a Ph.D. and M.S. in aerospace engineering and an M.S. in mechanical engineering from Georgia Tech and a B.S. in mechanical engineering from Texas A&M University. Joshua has also worked with GE Oil and Gas where he repaired gas flow meters in refineries, managed a $2M business to 350% growth in 9 months, and patented a refinery flare control solution. Before returning to Georgia Tech in 2018, Joshua volunteered as a community development engineer where he worked with individuals in rural villages in the Ecuadorian Amazon and Kyrgyzstan to design and install potable water systems and to develop appropriate technologies.